First there was Brexit, then Trump, so what’s next? Could it be Italy? Unsurprisingly, not many people in Britain are following the political theatre which surrounds the Italian Referendum.

However, next Sunday, 4th December, the result might mean a significant change for the equilibrium in the European Union. It could even trigger a fresh Eurozone crisis. Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, is trying to pass a package of constitutional reforms. Under the Italian Constitution, that automatically triggered a Referendum as the measures didn’t get the 2/3rds required support in Parliament.

The stakes for Renzi, who has threatened to resign, couldn’t be higher. His credibility would be in tatters and the Government could fall. The path would be then clearer for the 5-Star Movement to take office. One of their election pledges, which is shared with other opposition parties has, to date, been the promise of a referendum on the Euro.

I am not a fan of Mr Renzi or the Euro, but it’s a scary thought. Renzi is a fan of Tony Blair and is a traditional social democrat – albeit with a ‘New Labour’ twist. But my main objection to him is that I don’t think the man can be trusted. Even his ascent to the top job in Italy can be traced back to his assassination of his long term friend and former Party Leader Enrico Letta.

More importantly, since he has been in power, he has not been able to pass a single serious structural change. Italy is in desperate need of reform, yet Renzi behaves more like Santa Claus. Dispensing gifts with public money – a €500 ‘bonus’ to all 18-year old, €80 additional monthly ‘top ups’ to low earners and much else besides. But he has not managed to tackle the fundamentals. Italy still doesn’t have a minimum wage and younger employees are taken for a ride at the expense of older workers who enjoy limitless protections.

Mr Renzi and Ms Boschi (the Minister for Constitutional Reform) claim to have been reforming Italy, to have made it less bureaucratic, more flexible, more modern. Well, I don’t disagree with the intention and I think reforms are very much needed, but this isn’t the way to do it. It will remove the last direct link the Italian citizen has with their elected representatives.

The referendum question is very specific – i.e. ‘Do you wish to approve the constitutional norms such as revisiting the bicameral system, reducing the number of parliamentarians and abolishing the CNEL?’ . Yet ,Mr Renzi’s intentions are much more far reaching.

The most significant changes, which aren’t formally on the ballot paper, are measures to pass an electoral law – or ‘Italicum’ – where the largest party at a general election would get a majority premium. Considering that MPs are not even directly elected in Italy (wannabe MPs are ranked on a list according to their party’s will) and only senators are elected on a regional and proportional basis, how is abolishing the Senate a good way to make the system work better? Many things should change – there are too many MPs, too many Senators and the government finds getting anything done difficult. But surely Italy needs a proper program of reform rather than cosmetic changes to the Senate. The return of directly elected MPs who can be held to account would be a great place to start.

Mr Renzi cannot afford to play Santa all year round. Italy is almost bankrupt and these reforms (which only generate a few hundred million in savings) will only help patching up a debt that is already running into the trillions.

Italy deserves better than this. That’s why, even if I think it is risky, I voted ‘No’. It is a no to Mr Renzi, a no to the lies of the campaign, a no to imperfect reforms that would not really make a difference.

It is going to be tough if the ‘No’ side of the argument wins. Mr Renzi had initially promised to resign, now he seems to have back tracked. He is after all the same man who made a promise to David Cameron on Jean Claude Junker only to quickly change his mind.

A period of instability might lay ahead for Italy after the referendum, but it might be the only choice. Italy’s economy is so weak that, if this referendum does not trigger it, something else will.